The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted heavy rainfall across several parts of Karnataka till the end of October 2025, owing to the advancement of the northeast monsoon and the formation of a low-pressure area over the Southwest Bay of Bengal. The department has issued an orange alert for south interior and coastal Karnataka till Thursday, warning of very heavy rain in multiple districts, including Bengaluru.
Low-Pressure Systems Trigger Heavy Rain Forecast
According to the IMD, a low-pressure system currently forming over the Southwest Bay of Bengal is influencing weather patterns across southern India. Another low-pressure area is forecast to develop on Friday, with the potential to intensify into a cyclone. These weather systems are expected to cause widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across south interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka, and parts of the Malnad region in the coming week.
On Tuesday, the IMD upgraded its earlier yellow alert to an orange alert, indicating the likelihood of very heavy rainfall (ranging from 115.6 mm to 204.4 mm) in isolated areas. “The ongoing wet spell is due to the combined effect of the northeast monsoon’s onset and active low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal,” the IMD said in a statement.
Onset of Northeast Monsoon Four Days Early
Meteorological data shows that Karnataka experienced the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon on October 15, followed by the onset of the northeast monsoon on October 16, which arrived four days ahead of schedule. The early arrival of the northeast monsoon, coupled with the low-pressure systems, has created favorable conditions for continuous and widespread rainfall in several regions.
According to data from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), 16 out of the 31 districts in the state have received normal to excess rainfall, while northern Karnataka continues to record deficient precipitation. However, meteorologists at KSNDMC are optimistic that rainfall in the coming week could bridge the deficit in northern districts such as Bidar, Kalaburagi, and Raichur.
Districts Receiving Heavy Rainfall
Regions in south interior Karnataka, including Bengaluru Urban, Bengaluru Rural, Mandya, Mysuru, and Chamarajanagar, and the Malnad region, covering Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Shivamogga, have received 30% more rainfall than average, according to KSNDMC data.
On Tuesday, several areas in Bengaluru witnessed light to moderate afternoon showers, while parts of coastal Karnataka, including Mangaluru, Udupi, and Karwar, recorded heavy rainfall exceeding 60 mm.
“The intensity of rainfall is expected to remain high till the weekend, especially along the coast and southern interior districts,” said a meteorologist at KSNDMC.
Advisories and Precautions for Residents
The orange alert issued by IMD urges residents in affected regions to stay indoors during heavy rain, avoid waterlogged areas, and exercise caution near low-lying zones prone to flooding. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea due to strong winds and rough conditions expected along the Karnataka coast.
Authorities are monitoring the situation closely, with district administrations on alert to respond to any flooding, landslides, or power disruptions.
Weather Outlook for Karnataka
With two low-pressure systems influencing weather conditions in quick succession, the IMD expects intermittent rain and thunderstorms to persist across Karnataka until the end of October. If the second system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, rainfall activity could further increase over southern and coastal districts.
Residents are advised to follow updates from the IMD and KSNDMC for the latest weather forecasts and advisories.
